NSW bushfires: a "trailer" of what's to come
Images of the smoke billows from Australia's east coast bushfires were captured by NASA's Terra satellite. Photo credit: NASA.
Following the 'catastrophic fire danger' status and extreme weather across Australia, experts from the University of Sydney comment on some of the issues related to bushfires and warn that the current disasters may be a "trailer" of what's to come.
The University of Sydney is a member of the NSSN’s consortium of nine leading universities across NSW & ACT. The NSSN exists to bring together expertise in academia, industry and government to develop innovative smart sensing solutions to economic, societal and environmental challenges.
Current disasters may be a "trailer" of what's to come
"The current catastrophic fires can be directly linked to a lack of rainfall and resulting extremely low levels of moisture content measured in forests across New South Wales," said humanitarian engineer, Dr Petr Matous.
"Most climate projection scenarios predict — with high confidence — further shifts in rainfall patterns across the country, which may lead to even harsher fire seasons in southern and eastern Australia in the future," he said.
"It is devastating to think that the current disasters may be just a trailer of what might be coming in the next decades. Some seasons will be wetter and safer than others depending on oscillating climatic systems such as El Niño, and in some areas, severe droughts might limit future vegetation growth which would decrease the amount of fuel for bush fires.”
"The overall trend, however, is likely to be towards more hazards. These climatic changes accompanied by demographic changes driving increasing numbers of Sydney-siders towards tree-change, will require a new approach to spatial and infrastructure planning in most hazard-prone areas to provide more robust buffer zones between the bush and people’s homes."
Dr Petr Matous is a humanitarian and environmental engineer from the Faculty of Engineering's School of Civil Engineering.
Climate and the health of the bush
"Climate change has both direct and indirect pathways of causation to catastrophic fires," said Professor Glenda Wardle, who is a Professor of Ecology and Evolution in the University's Faculty of Science.
"Drier, hotter and windier conditions increase the likelihood that fires will spread. Flammable vegetation such as eucalypt woodlands in NSW will also increase the chance of fires spreading.”
"Much of NSW is also in drought and trees are dying and fuel loads are very dry, leading to dangerous conditions for fires to burn more intensely and spread fast. Under climate change, droughts are going to get longer and come more often, increasing the impact of fires.”
"The place to take action is at the start of this causal chain – do not extract coal, reduce CO2 emissions, and plan to share the use water more carefully to keep our bush healthy and to provide towns with drinking water.”
"Fire impacts animals in many and varied ways, especially because fire removes plants and the resources plants provide to animals. For example, birds and possums depend on tree hollows for shelter, but many trees will fall after fire.”
"Some animals also take advantage of the open areas after fire to hunt for prey and this can be detrimental for native mammals that are already subject to higher predation pressure from introduced red fox and feral cats."
Professor Glenda Wardle is an expert in wildlife and conservation from the University of Sydney's School of Life and Environmental Sciences.
Also read: outsmarting the drought in NSW.
Slow recovery for vegetation
“The catastrophic and extreme fire alerts that have been issued for the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, Greater Sydney Region and Greater Hunter areas for Tuesday are unprecedented in their extent for this time of year," said Associate Professor Tina Bell.
"The bushfire season started several months ago in northern NSW and we are now feeling the effects of an extended dry period further south. We don’t expect this type of warning until much later in summer.”
“Early season, high-intensity bushfires are likely to affect the recovery of vegetation if prolonged dry periods continue. This may be seen with slow or limited regrowth of leaves, reduced flowering and seed production and poor seedling germination.”
"The impact of post-fire events such as movement of ash and soil from exposed surfaces and heating of blackened soil surfaces may also be increased if vegetation is slow to recover.”
Tina Bell is an Associate Professor in Fire Ecology in the School of Life and Environmental Sciences. She is also a member of the Sydney Institute of Agriculture.
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