Floods - where to now for smart sensing technologies?
In this thought piece, NSSN Data Theme Leader for Environment and AgTech, Dr Tomonori Hu gives his perspective on how we can use smart sensing technologies to prepare for major flooding events.
In August 2022, the NSSN Smart Sensing for Flooding Workshop was held – where industry, government and academic experts in the field were brought together to determine the role of smart sensing technology for flood prediction and management. The broad representation across multiple sectors, from problem holders to solution providers, put forward key proposals and strategies – which we elaborate on below.
Since this event, many parts of NSW have continuously been hit by dangerous flood events, and more recently north-west to central Queensland have been hit by heavy rainfall leading to record flooding. Flooding continues to be a major threat in NSW and Australia. Due in part to Australia’s highly variable climate, those threats to society will result in more significant economic and social impacts due to infrastructure expansion, a growing population, agricultural intensification, and supply chain complexity.
But La Niña has ended, we are now in an El Niño WATCH, does that mean fewer floods?
The Bureau of Meteorology (Bom), in its current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) forecast, states that the 2022-2023 La Niña has ended – following its declaration in September 2022. This comes after three consecutive years of La Niña decelerations, with most of the major flooding happening during February-March 2022. But most international climate models indicate that there is a 50% chance that an El Niño may likely develop later in 2023. With most thresholds to El Nino likely exceeded by August. Most interpretations of these new conditions point towards drier and hotter times ahead for Australia.
The CSIRO notes that as well as air and oceans warming since 1910, the future for flood risk in southern Australia will be a result of increasing extremes of rainfall and drier catchments.
Does this mean we can forget about floods?
Well, not exactly.
ENSO phases are not the only determining factor for flood occurrence. The following plot was produced in February 2023 by FloodMapp - one of our panel members at the workshop and provider of real-time flood intelligence. It looks at a section of gauges across Queensland and NSW to understand the number of flood events, that exceeded moderate levels during La Niña and El Niño climatic phases.
FloodMapp stated that “as expected, some of the largest events on record and clusters of events fell during the La Niña Phases however there were still a significant number of events which occurred outside of La Niña phases”.
This means that even though ENSO phases effect the long-term weather patterns, floods can still occur at any time.
Regardless, we should not be waiting for the next La Niña to prepare for floods.
The 2022 NSW Flood Inquiry shows how critical large and extreme floods will diminish the welfare of people in NSW and Australia.
In fact, the 2022 NSW Flood Inquiry report demonstrates how much of NSW is prone to natural disasters, especially flooding and the need for new ‘sustained disaster preparedness’. The report also points to the complexity and variability of large and small-scale heavy rainfall events. It finds no definitive evidence of climate change on NSW flooding. But that climate modelling suggests increases in extreme rainfall intensity and frequency in NSW and across Australia. Thus amplifying possibilities of highly variable rural and urban flash flooding crises, already experienced in Australia.
Where to from here?
The NSSN is continuing to push our efforts in using smart sensing technologies to build better situational awareness for flood affected communities before, during and after flooding across Australia.
From our workshop in August 2022 a range of stakeholders; State Emergency Services, NSW Government, Local Government, and catchment authorities were brought together to map the current state of flood information flow and identify key problem areas.
Workshop attendees identified seven main problem areas where smart sensing technologies can improve the way communities and their governments increase resilience to floods. The detailed descriptions are available in our NSSN Smart Sensing for Floods Report, released in September 2022 – can be found here. These are summarised in the following:
Next-generation sensor networks and data analytics – look at the IoT industry to create networks that provide real time information to facilitate situational awareness. Look to creating open data (such as river rate-of-flow, upper catchment measurements and historical events) and the latest data analytics to understand the downstream impacts of rainfall, runoff, and landslides.
Build a better understanding of river dynamics at scale – local governments need more information about river dynamics. Certain rivers are well researched and understood but many key tributary behaviours are not – how do we share these learnings and scale it?
Personalised evacuation plans need to be developed to get the key information to the community. This would be a targeted evacuation plan (focusing on mobility/accessibility) to help the public act quickly during a flood. Education would be a key part of the strategy.
Storage of historical data is important to prepare future responses and make new calculations. Collating impact data (ecological and infrastructure), insurance claims, citizen science data, and First Nation’s traditional knowledge needs to be accessible for future research and planning.
Create situational awareness platforms for responders. Development of a multi-user interface for data source integration is essential for future flood management. Systems that highlight the most critical information will be key to aid in the already cluttered responder work environment.
Low-cost sensors are becoming more available to cover ‘blind spots’ in geographic coverage. Looking at the IoT industry for new networks and devices that could provide missing information.
Develop ways to make radar-based rainfall data accessible. Radar technology provides real-time rain updates through the BoM. New models could be developed through collaboration using this data – but how can findings be accessible in the right form to councils who need the information?
The above themes strongly emerged from our expert discussions at the Workshop. While NSSN fostered this unique collaboration across the sectors, the recommendations only scratch the surface of what is an incredibly complex problem. Yet the rapid mobilisation of government, industry, and academics at the workshop shows there is certainly enough passion and talent within our country to prepare for future floods.
The NSW Smart Sensing Network in NSW and the ACT has access to the brightest minds in the field of flood hazards and risk, and the use of smart sensing technologies to both aid community protection but also boost resilience to future large-scale floods, which will surely occur.
Tackling these major challenges helps all of us to prepare for a better future.
If any of the problem statements in the report are relevant (whether you are a problem holder or would like to suggest a solution) to your work/expertise, please reach out to Dr. Tomonori Hu below to explore ways to get projects funded, partnered and launched through the NSSN.
Dr Tomonori Hu is Research Theme Leader for Environment and AgTech at NSW Smart Sensing Network. He currently leads the NSSN Grand Challenge of Water and co-organised the Smart Sensing for Floods Workshop in 2022. His interests are in taking innovative technologies in the research sector to solve challenging societal problem – such as natural disasters, air pollution, wildlife protection, and defence.
Learn more about Tom here
This article was written in collaboration with Dr. Diana Day PhD FAICD and NSSN Board Member. Dr Day has 30 years’ experience as an independent non-executive director of federal and state statutory authorities, the private sector, government R&D and advisory organisations, higher education, and, social enterprises. Dr Day’s deep collaborative experience working within national and state multi-stakeholder environments contributed to the development of Australia’s National Water Quality Management Strategy, and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Learn more about Diana here
The NSSN would like to thank FloodMapp for their contributions to this article, and their on-going involvement. FloodMapp is a technology company that specialises in rapid real-time forecasting and flood inundation mapping to provide greater warning time and situational awareness.
Find more about FloodMapp here
